The Lindy Effect

The Lindy Effect

Yesterday, a couple people sent me articles explaining President Biden wouldn't be able to bring his Peloton into the White House for security reasons. If you've been a reader for a while, you know I like picking on Peloton and Mirror because they're trying to do the impossible, replace the community, accountability and coaching that belonging to a gym provides. All cliches are rooted in truth, and the one about home exercise equipment becoming a clothes rack rings true for many. Therefore, I view it as a bad way to get fit, a good supplement to another routine, sure, but not an end all be all.

One friend's text said, "you can't hack a dumbbell."

That reminded me of something I first read about in Antifragile by Nassim Taleb. The Lindy Effect.

The Lindy Effect is a theory that states:

More Past Exposure = More Future Exposure

Said another way, the longer something has been around, the more likely it'll stick around. A book that's been in publication for 50 years, stands a better shot at sticking around for another 50 compared to a book that's just been printed. The longer it has stuck around, the longer its life expectancy.

This is true for fitness equipment and routines too. Kettlebells, barbells, dumbbells and yoga have been around forever. They've stood the test of time, which according to this theory, means they're unlikely to go anywhere. Step aerobics, P90X, 6-minute abs, Peloton, the Mirror haven't even scratched the life expectancy surface of good old fashioned weight training.

We can keep trying to make fitness novel and fun, but it would be more effective to look back and see what's stood the test of time, and what has years and years of results to show for itself. I've said it before, and I'll keep saying it; strength and conditioning is a key to a long and healthy life. The sooner we realize that and get to work, the better.

Justin Miner

@justinminergain